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Why the USD Can Keep Falling



In the last nine months, USD has dropped a whopping 11%!


A strong decline since the peak highs that were initially printed in March, following the market flooding to the greenback for safety.


It can fall a whole lot more and let's take a look why...

Vaccine


USD is being hit by progress towards a COVID-19 vaccine rollout. AstraZeneca announced that its vaccine could be around 90% effective. The British drugmaker will prepare the submission of data to authorities around the world that have a framework for conditional or early approval. Elsewhere, U.S.-based Moderna Inc said on Nov. 16 its experimental vaccine was 94.5% effective and, a week earlier, Pfizer Inc and Germany’s BioNTech SE said their vaccine candidate had demonstrated greater than 90% efficacy that rose to 95% with analysis of full trial data. (All supportive of risk appetite and USD weakness)


Biden


President-elect Joe Biden is set to take over the White House in January. He as perceived by the markets is great for risk-appetite. The stance with China and the deteriorating relationship over tariffs started by outcoming Donald Trump, could be improved somewhat. Biden is seen as he is more likely to take a less harsh approach with China, which would be supportive for risk-on trading. When the trade wars were flaring up markets were piling into safety, USD, and JPY.


Yellen & FOMC


Joe Biden announced that he will name former fed chair Janet Yellen (dovish stance) as his treasury secretary. She has called for opening fiscal spending taps to revive an economy. Yellen would be seen as a USD negative but positive for riskier currencies and stocks. Yellen will team up with the Fed and support the economy. U.S. rates will remain low for a long time. (USD NEGATIVE)




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