Three Key Fundamentals From This Week

Second Wave Theme:

Second wave COVID-19 outbreaks continue to dominate globally, especially in the particular states across the US, such as Texas, as highlighted below in the most recent data.

The US CDC reported coronavirus cases rose 37,667 to 2,374,282 and death toll rose by 692 to 121,809. while a major newswire tally suggested that US coronavirus cases increased by a record of at least 39,818.

  • Texas coronavirus cases rose 4.8% (Prev. 7-day avg. +3.9%), Texas Governor Abbott announced a halting of the next phase of reopening for the state's economy and signed an executive order relating to the need for increased hospital capacity during the COVID-19 disaster, while it was also reported that Houston, Texas area ICU's have reached maximum capacity

  • South Africa, which accounts for about half of the infections on the African continent with 118,375, reported a record 6,579 new cases, as transmissions increase after it loosened what had been one of the world’s strictest lockdowns earlier this month.

  • Global coronavirus infections are now above 9.5 million with confirmed deaths edging towards 500k. US infections rose 1.7%, the biggest one-day jump since 30th May.

  • Although certain states in the US as New Jersey are moving into stage 2 of reopening their respective economies from the lockdown, other states like Texas and California have no idea as to when they will be ready for that advancement, with accelerated cases. With Texas ICU’s at maximum capacity, we may see Governors becoming increasingly aggressive to the Federal government, in a plea for aid.

Trade War

The Trump administration is weighing tariffs on around $3.1 billion of imports from the UK, Spain, Germany and France. Products that are being considered include cheese, planes, beer and gin, a notice published Tuesday night said. The move is the latest in the trade scrap between the EU and US, which began over subsidies given to major aviation companies in both nations.

The EU filled counter tariffs which is currently under the review of the WTO, aimed at US Boeing (air flight). It is likely the WTO will approve this tariff request and they previously approved a $7.5 billion tariff initiated by the US on Airbus (air flight).

Once approved, the US are likely to heighten tensions and potentially impose further tariffs on other sectors, triggering a new US VS EU tariff war.

US, EU and UK PMI data

UK, EU and US PMI data released this week were all generally positive, showing a strong rebound when compared to previous recordings. But all is not as it seems according to IHS Markit (entity responsible for producing the data). For example, UK PMI was recorded as 50.1, however actual orders were less according to IHS, a figure below 50 typically points towards an economy in contraction. Nonetheless, the positive data and given markets fresh optimisms that major developed economies are recovering from the crisis. But the question remains, for how long?



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